The next time you hit your local pub, the odds are that the pint of beer you order will come from one of five global beer conglomerates. Together, they own hundreds of the best-known domestic, import, and craft beer brands all over the world, in pretty much any country you can name. Whether you are seeking a smooth pilsner, a creamy stout, or an old-fashioned ale to whet your whistle, this multi-national beer oligopoly has got you covered.
The Big Five
Until recently, there were actually six big conglomerates: AB InBev, SAB Miller, MolsonCoors, Heineken, Diageo, and Carlsberg. However, in mere weeks that will no longer be true. The world’s two largest beer companies – AB InBev and SAB Miller – are merging into one massive megabrewer. The deal, which is worth a hefty $107 billion, is expected to close by October 2016. When it is all said and done, the merged company will have a brand portfolio that will be the envy of the industry: Budweiser, Corona, Stella Artois, Hoegaarden, Pilsner Urquell, Foster’s, Shock Top, Elysian, and Beck’s are just some of the flagship brands involved. That will be after likely divesting several key brands such as Blue Moon and the entire Miller line of beers to appease antitrust regulators.
The Illusion of Choice
As we said previously when we posted the infographic showing the illusion of choice in consumer brands, we believe it is important for you to be aware of who is supplying the different brands and goods served at your dinner table. Each dollar you spend is a vote – make sure it goes to a product and company that you believe in. on Last year, stock and bond returns tumbled after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years. It was the first time in decades that both asset classes posted negative annual investment returns in tandem. Over four decades, this has happened 2.4% of the time across any 12-month rolling period. To look at how various stock and bond asset allocations have performed over history—and their broader correlations—the above graphic charts their best, worst, and average returns, using data from Vanguard.
How Has Asset Allocation Impacted Returns?
Based on data between 1926 and 2019, the table below looks at the spectrum of market returns of different asset allocations:
We can see that a portfolio made entirely of stocks returned 10.3% on average, the highest across all asset allocations. Of course, this came with wider return variance, hitting an annual low of -43% and a high of 54%.
A traditional 60/40 portfolio—which has lost its luster in recent years as low interest rates have led to lower bond returns—saw an average historical return of 8.8%. As interest rates have climbed in recent years, this may widen its appeal once again as bond returns may rise.
Meanwhile, a 100% bond portfolio averaged 5.3% in annual returns over the period. Bonds typically serve as a hedge against portfolio losses thanks to their typically negative historical correlation to stocks.
A Closer Look at Historical Correlations
To understand how 2022 was an outlier in terms of asset correlations we can look at the graphic below:
The last time stocks and bonds moved together in a negative direction was in 1969. At the time, inflation was accelerating and the Fed was hiking interest rates to cool rising costs. In fact, historically, when inflation surges, stocks and bonds have often moved in similar directions. Underscoring this divergence is real interest rate volatility. When real interest rates are a driving force in the market, as we have seen in the last year, it hurts both stock and bond returns. This is because higher interest rates can reduce the future cash flows of these investments. Adding another layer is the level of risk appetite among investors. When the economic outlook is uncertain and interest rate volatility is high, investors are more likely to take risk off their portfolios and demand higher returns for taking on higher risk. This can push down equity and bond prices. On the other hand, if the economic outlook is positive, investors may be willing to take on more risk, in turn potentially boosting equity prices.
Current Investment Returns in Context
Today, financial markets are seeing sharp swings as the ripple effects of higher interest rates are sinking in. For investors, historical data provides insight on long-term asset allocation trends. Over the last century, cycles of high interest rates have come and gone. Both equity and bond investment returns have been resilient for investors who stay the course.
